Probability 101

Listening to Boston sports media talking about tonight's NBA draft lottery, I can't tell if they're all willfully deluded, or if they really don't understand probability. They typically all say something like, "The Celtics have a 37% chance of getting either the first or second pick, but there's still a chance they won't get either one. What would Boston do if they didn't get either Oden or Durant?"

I feel stupid even writing this, but 37% is less than 50%. That means it is unlikely that Boston will get either the first or second pick tonight. I'm guessing they'll pick fifth.

On the other hand, I have run ESPN's lottery and mock draft twice, and the Celts have picked Durant both times, so maybe we'll be okay. Hmmm... I wonder if the Sports Guy hacked into this somehow....

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